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2000–2050年东北三省土地利用时空格局变化过程模拟及其生态服务影响研究(英文)

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成果类型:
期刊论文
论文标题(英文):
Modeling the spatio-temporal changes in land uses and its impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China over 2000–2050
作者:
Xia Tian;Wu Wenbin*;Zhou Qingbo;Tan Wenxia;Verburg, Peter H.;Yang Peng;Ye Liming
通讯作者:
Wu Wenbin
作者机构:
[Xia Tian; Wu Wenbin; Zhou Qingbo; Yang Peng] Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Key Laboratory of Agri-informatics, Ministry of Agriculture, Beijing, 100081
[Xia Tian; Tan Wenxia] College of Urban & Environmental Science, Central China Normal University, Key Laboratory for Geographical Process Analysis & Simulation, Hubei Province, Wuhan, 430079
[Verburg, Peter H.] Institute for Environmental Studies, VU University Amsterdam, The Netherlands, Amsterdam, 1081 HV
[Ye Liming] CAAS-UGent Joint Laboratory of Global Change and Food Security / Institute of Agricultural Resources and Regional Planning, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, Beijing, 100081
[Ye Liming] Department of Geology (WE13), Ghent University, Belgium, Gent, 9000
通讯机构:
[Wu Wenbin] Chinese Acad Agr Sci, Inst Agr Resources & Reg Planning, Minist Agr, Key Lab Agri Informat, Beijing 100081, Peoples R China.
语种:
中文
关键词:
Northeast China;land use;spatio-temporal change;scenario;ecosystem service
期刊:
地理学报(英文版)
期刊(英文):
Journal of Geographical Sciences
ISSN:
1009-637X
年:
2018
卷:
28
期:
11
页码:
1611-1625
文献类别:
WOS:Article
所属学科:
ESI学科类别:地球科学;WOS学科类别:Geography, Physical
入藏号:
基金类别:
Agricultural Outstanding Talents Research Foundation of Ministry of Agriculture(MOA); Key Laboratory of Agri–Informatics Foundation of MOA No.2015001; Natural Science Foundation of Hubei Province No.2016CFB558; The Fundamental Research Funds for the Central Universities,No.CCNU15A05058;
机构署名:
本校为通讯机构
院系归属:
城市与环境科学学院
摘要:
Land use and its dynamics have attracted considerable scientific attention for their significant ecological and socioeconomic implications.Many studies have investigated the past changes in land use,but efforts exploring the potential changes in land use and implications under future scenarios are still lacking.Here we simulate the future land use changes and their impacts on ecosystem services in Northeast China(NEC) over the period of 2000–2050 using the CLUE–S(Conversion of Land Use and its Effects at Small regional extent) model under the scenarios of ecological security(ESS),food security(FSS) and comprehensive development(CDS).The model was validated against remote sensing data in 2005.Overall,the accuracy of the CLUE–S model was evaluated at 82.5%.Obtained results show that future cropland changes mainly occur in the Songnen Plain and the Liaohe Plain,forest and grassland changes are concentrated in the southern Lesser Khingan Mountains and the western Changbai Mountains,while the Sanjiang Plain will witness major changes of the wetlands.Our results also show that even though CDS is defined based on the goals of the regional development plan,the ecological service value(ESV) under CDS is RMB 2656.18 billion in 2050.The ESV of CDS is lower compared with the other scenarios.Thus,CDS is not an optimum scenario for eco-environmental protection,especially for the wetlands,which should be given higher priority for future development.The issue of coordination is also critical in future development.The results can help to assist structural adjustments for agriculture and to guide policy interventions in NEC.
参考文献:
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Bonilla–Moheno M, Aide T M, Clark M, 2012. The influence of socioeconomic, environmental, and demographic factors on municipality–scale land–cover change in Mexico. , 12(3): 543–557.
Carpenter S R, Mooney H A, Agard J et al., 2009. Science for managing ecosystem services: Beyond the millennium ecosystem assessment. , 106(5): 1305–1312.
Chen C, Qian C, Deng A et al., 2012. Progressive and active adaptations of cropping system to climate change in Northeast China. , 38: 94–103.
Chen L, Wang J, Fu B et al., 2001. Land–use change in a small catchment of northern Loess Plateau, China. , 86(2): 163–172.

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