期刊论文

Gu Jiao

英文

中国物理快报：英文版

0256-307X

2012

29

2

028902

10.1088/0256-307X/29/2/028902

National Natural Science Foundation of ChinaNational Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) [10647125, 10635020, 10975057, 10975062]; Program of Introducing Talents of Discipline to UniversitiesMinistry of Education, China - 111 Project [B08033]; Max-Planck Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences

本校为第一机构

We introduce the variant rate and white noise into the susceptible-infected-removed (SIR) model for epidemics, discuss the epidemic dynamics of a multiple-compartment system, and describe this system by using master equations. For both the local epidemic spreading system and the whole multiple-compartment system, we find that a threshold could be useful in forecasting when the epidemic vanishes. Furthermore, numerical simulations show that a model with the variant infection r...