期刊论文

ANALYSIS OF ARABLE LAND POTENTIAL IN HUBEI PROVINCE AND STUDIES ON FORECASTING SUPPLY AND DEMAND

中文

中国农业资源与区划

1005-9121

2005

26

4

18-22

10.3969/j.issn.1005-9121.2005.04.005

湖北省科技厅科技攻关计划项目（项目编号:2001AA401C21）。；

本校为其他机构

该文基于对湖北省耕地利用现状分析,从供给与需求两个方面对湖北省的耕地面积进行潜力分析和预测,并得出如下结论:湖北省耕地远景全部供给潜力是544.18万hm2,2010年时的实际供给潜力约为476.06万hm2;在湖北省2010年外调粮食300万t的前提条件下,湖北省2010年的耕地需求总量应为508.33万hm2,超过2002年482.53万hm2的耕地面积现状;相较于2010年当时的供给潜力而言,其缺口可达32.27万hm2;2010年时若湖北省只满足自身粮食供给不再外调粮食,则其耕地需求量应为473.14万hm2,耕地面积供需基本平衡.

This paper analyzes and forecasts the arable land areas and their potential in Hubei Province from two sides of supply and demand on the bases of analyzing the present status of arable land utilization in Hubei Province. The conclusions are as follows： The total supplying potential is 5.4418 million hm^2. The actual supplying potential in 2010 is about 4. 7606 million hm^2. Under the precondition of transporting 3 million tons of grain out of Hubei Province in 2010, the total requirement for arable land in 2010 should be 5.0833 million hm^2, w...