期刊论文

Spatiotemporal characteristics and influencing factors of the epidemic disasters for the past 3000 years in China

中文

地理学报

0375-5444

2021

76

8

1976-1996

10.11821/dlxb202108012

National Natural Science Foundation of China, No.41171408; National Social Science Foundation of China, No.12&ZD145.

本校为第一机构

疫灾是人类灾害链网中的顶级灾害。利用历史疫灾史料,建立疫灾时间序列,使用历史断面分析、因子相关分析、时间序列分析等方法,对中国过去2720年疫灾流行的时空特征及其影响因素进行研究。结果表明:（1）中国疫灾流行的频度和强度有长期上升趋势,温暖期形成疫灾低谷,寒冷期形成疫灾高峰。（2）中国疫灾流行总体以夏、秋季为主,但有阶段性差异,15世纪50年代以后,由于疫病种类增多,疫灾频度提高,疫灾的季节性差异逐渐不显著。（3）中国疫灾波动周期主要有620～610 a、320～310 a、230～220 a、170 a、90 a等,它们大都是12 a或11.2 a的倍数,反映了"十二地支"周期的存在和太阳黑子活动对疫灾周期的重...

Epidemics are one of the most severe events in the human disaster network. On the basis of establishing the epidemic sequence by using historical epidemic data, and using the methods such as historical section analysis, factor correlation analysis, and time sequence analysis, this article examines the spatiotemporal characteristics and causes of the epidemic disasters for the past 2720 years (770 BC-AD 1949) in China. The results show that: (1) The frequency and intensity of epidemic disasters in China have a long-term upward trend, with trough...