期刊论文

中文

中国房地产(上旬刊)

1001-9138

2016

18

25-34

10.13562/j.china.real.estate.2016.18.003

本校为第一机构

利用我国1999-2014年的时间序列数据，选取房地产税收、房地产投资和房地产价格作为分析变量，构建向量自回归的VAR模型、运用脉冲响应和方差分解方法，就房地产税收、房地产投资和房地产价格之间联动影响进行分析。结果显示：房地产税收在短期内有促进房地产投资和房地产价格上扬的倾向，虽然长期有抑制效果，但是并不显著；房地产投资和房地产价格互为影响，房地产价格对房地产投资影响更大，短期来看两者的影响互为正相关，但是长期关系却出现负相关；另外，房地产投资和房地产价格的趋势在长期内也会影响房地产税收政策的走向。

In reference of series domestic statistics from 1999 to 2014, we focused on real estate tax, real estate investment and real estate prices as analysis variables. The author adopted vector autoregression VAR model, impulse response and variance decomposition methods, in order to do research works and seeking linkages between the real estate tax, real estate investment and real estate prices. The results showed that there exists short-term tendency showing that the real estate tax create positive effects for real estate investment and real estate prices. Although the inhibitory effects in long-t...