:Based on the random coefficient discrete choice model and China's car market aggregate data, this paper ana- lyzes the demand and supply of ear market, and the welfare effect of mergers simulation. The result finds : ①The resem- ble degree of China's car is too high,② Relative to the other discrete choice model, the BLP model can depict accurately the fact that the more resemble, the more substitute, ③After mergers, the profit of mergers automobile enterprises and the other automobile enterprises will rise up, the welfare of consumers w...