期刊论文

中文

现代财经(天津财经大学学报)

1005-1007

2014

34

4

20-26

10.19559/j.cnki.12-1387.2014.04.003

本校为其他机构

本文研究了CPI与PPI之间联系机制,从理论上说明我国CPI对PPI的反向倒逼传导机制。在实证研究中,指出了线性和非线性Granger因果检验等技术的不合理性,提出了用武-豪斯曼检验的方法可以检验CPI与PPI之间的传导机制。研究发现:在我国总体上并不存在由PPI到CPI的线性或非线性传导机制;相反,我国只存在CPI对PPI的反向倒逼传导机制,而且CPI上升1个百分点,PPI平均会上升0.25个百分点。实证结果给我们的启示是,以烫平价格波动为目的的宏观调控,从需求管理方面进行比较合理,从供给方面或者从需求和供给两个方面进行混合调控是不合理的。

This paper studies the relation mechanism between CPI and PPI and illustrates the anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.Through empirical study,the paper points out the irrationality of linear or nonlinear Granger Test and holds that Hausman Test can be used to examine the conduction mechanism between CPI and PPI.The findings show that there is no linear or nonlinear conduction mechanism from PPI to CPI;On the contrary,there is anti-driving conduction mechanism from CPI to PPI.PPI rises by 0.25% with CPI rising by 1%.The empirical result shows that macro-control is rational in orde...