期刊论文

The Effect of Real Estate Investment on Monetary Transmission Mechanism in China——An Empirical Study Based on VADL Model

中文

现代财经(天津财经大学学报)

1005-1007

2016

36

12

86-96

10.19559/j.cnki.12-1387.2016.12.008

国家社会科学基金项目（14BJY011）.

本校为第一机构

我国房地产经济的发展对我国货币供给向实体经济的流动有特殊重要的作用,但房地产经济发展的过度膨胀,也会给货币供给向其它实体产业的流动带来负向影响。本文以2005—2016年的季度数据作为估计依据,根据IS—LM模型构建变系数自回归分布滞后（VADL）模型,就中国房地产投资规模对货币传导机制的影响进行了检验和分析。实证结果表明：房地产投资规模对货币传导的效率和时滞有正反两个方向的影响;当房地产开发投资总额的增量超过一个临界点后,其影响是负向的,反之则是正向的;由市场因素决定的房地产投资数量存在一个季度投资额约为1万亿元人民币的最优规模,超过这个规模的部分很可能是非市场因素（...

The development of China＇s real estate economy has a special effect on the flow of money supply to the real economy,but the over-expansion of the real estate economy will also have a negative impact on the flow of money supply to other entities.This paper conducts an empirical analysis of the impact of China＇s real estate investment on monetary transmission mechanism based on Vary coefficient Autoregressive-Distributed Lag（VADL）model with the quarter data from 2005 to 2016.The results show that the real estate investment scale has an effect...