期刊论文

Mathematical Modeling and Computer Simulation on Hand,Foot and Mouth Disease in Children

中文

数学物理学报

1003-3998

2018

38

5

1032-1040

10.3969/j.issn.1003-3998.2018.05.018

11371161:国家自然科学基金 11071275:国家自然科学基金 CCNU16JCZX10:中央高校基本科研业务费专项华中师范大学项目 2016-XA-008:湖北科技学院教学研究基金

本校为第一机构

手足口病(HFMD)是由肠道病毒引起的传染病,患者主要是少儿,由EV71和CoxA16病毒引起.该文建立了传染病SEIHRS模型,模拟了2012-2016年手足口病患病者的数据,估计了手足口病每年的基本再生数,给出了手足口病少儿疫苗的接种率,预测了2017年手足口病患病者的数目并提出了预防控制策略.该文的结果能为该疾病的预防与控制工作提供理论依据.

Hand, foot, and mouth disease （HFMD） is a contagious disease mainly caused by the enterovirus 71 （EV71） and coxsackievirus A 16 （CoxA16）. The infectious of HFMD is mainly children. In this paper, we construct an SEIHRS model, simulate the HFMD data of infectious from 2012 to 2016, estimate the basic reproductive number each year from 2012 to 2016, predict the infectious number of HFMD in year 2017, compute the domain of vaccination rate on children and put forward the preventive measures and control strategy. The results of this paper can pr...