期刊论文

中文

情报理论与实践

1000-7490

2020

43

5

123-130

10.16353/j.cnki.1000-7490.2020.05.021

本校为第一机构

[目的/意义]网络舆情具有的演化路径不明确、演化态势复杂等特点,致使决策主体在应急管理中很难做出科学应对。[方法/过程]文章首先定义了网络舆情事件链的节点描述方式、节点状态概率以及节点演化概率,并给出网络舆情事件链的构建过程;然后在实证中构建了面向消费者维权的网络舆情事件链,实现了该类网络舆情的关键情景推演;最后结合"奔驰维权"案例,证明文中方法的有效性和可行性。[结果/结论]文中方法可以有效预测消费者维权类网络舆情的发展态势,为网络环境下该类网络舆情的应急处置提供决策支持。

[Purpose/significance]The evolution path of public opinion in network is not clear and the evolution situation of public opinion in the network is complex,which makes it difficult for decision-makers to make a scientific response in emergency management.[Method/process]Firstly,we define the node description method,node state probability and node evolution probability of chain of events about public opinion in the network,and design its construction process.Then,we construct a chain of events oriented to consumer rights defense in the experiment,and realize the key scenario deduction of this ki...