期刊论文

Gu Jiao

英文

科学通报(英文版)

2095-9273

2011

56

34

3683-3688

10.1007/s11434-011-4753-z

We would like to thank the Max-Planck-Institute for Mathematics in the Sciences, Leipzig, Germany for the support. We also thank Shiping Liu for useful discussion and helpful suggestions. This work was supported in part by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (10647125, 10635020, 10975057, 10975062) and the Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities (B08033).

本校为其他机构

Motivated by the need to include the different characteristics of individuals and the damping effect in predictions of epidemic spreading, we build a model with variant coefficients and white Gaussian noise based on the traditional SIR model. The analytic and simulation results predicted by the model are presented and discussed. The simulations show that using the variant coefficients results in a higher percentage of susceptible individuals and a lower percentage of removed individuals. When the noise is included in the model, the percentage of infected individuals has a wider peak and more f...

由需要激发了在流行传播的预言包括个人和抑制效果的不同特征，我们基于传统的先生模型与变体系数和白 Gaussian 噪音造一个模型。分析并且模型预言的模拟结果被介绍并且讨论。模拟在易受影响的个人的一个更高的百分比和移开的个人的一个更低的百分比用变体系数结果显示出那。当噪音在模型被包括时，感染的个人的百分比比用传统的先生预言了那让一座更宽的山峰和更多的变化当模特儿。