期刊论文

中文

地理研究

1000-0585

2014

33

8

1569-1578

10.11821/dlyj201408015

国家自然科学基金项目(41171408);国家社会科学基金项目(11AZD117,12&ZD145);华中师范大学优秀博士学位论文培育计划资助项目(2013YBYB64,2013YBYB66)

本校为第一机构

疫灾是急性传染病大规模流行引起的灾害,自古就是人类健康和生命安全的巨大威胁。依据历史文献,采用数理统计、GIS分析和地图表达方法对明代江南地区的疫灾时空变迁进行研究。从时间演化看,明代江南地区至少有63年发生过疫灾,疫灾频度约23%。其中,1368-1464年间为9%,1465-1566年间为25%,1567-1644年间为36%,总体上疫灾趋于频繁。嘉靖、万历、崇祯三朝为疫灾群发期,集中了整个明代63%的疫灾之年。夏秋季节是疫灾多发季节,明代75%的疫灾发生在这两个季节。疫灾频度的长期上升趋势明显,整个明代经历了7个波长为30~50年的波动周期。从空间分布看,明代江南地区的疫灾与太湖的安澜与否密切相关,疫灾大...

Epidemic disaster results from the massive prevalence of some acute infectious diseases. It has been threatening human health and life security throughout historical times. Jiangnan area is traditionally defined as the Yangtze Delta at the center of the Taihu Lake Plain, including the prefectures of Suzhou Fu, Songjiang Fu, Changzhou Fu, Zhenjiang Fu, Jiangjing Fu, Hangzhou Fu, Jiaxing Fu, Huzhou Fu in the Ming Dynasty(1368-1644), involving parts of Shanghai, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces nowadays. Based on historical documents, using methods of mathematical statistics, GIS spatial analysis a...