期刊论文

中文

农业现代化研究

1000-0275

2016

37

2

247-254

10.13872/j.1000-0275.2016.0013

国家水体污染控制与治理科技重大专项洱海项目

本校为第一机构

欠发达地区如何在不牺牲环境的前提下发展经济,实现可持续发展,产业结构的优化是关键。以洱海流域水环境承载力为基础条件,立足“最优化原理”,运用多目标动态规划模型确定流域主要污染物总量控制目标,寻求流域社会经济结构和发展速度等在资源环境指标约束下的最适配置。研究结果表明,平衡型增长方案是适合洱海流域社会经济发展的方案,既能使污染物排放量得到有效控制,又能保证近期、中期、远期经济稳定协调发展。根据研究结果,结合流域实际,制定重点产业、行业调整规划,优化集成流域三次产业结构调整方案,为洱海流域水环境保护及经济社会可持续发展提供决策依据。

How to optimize the industrial structure without slowing down the development speed and increasing pollution is a key issue for the underdeveloped areas. Based on the water carrying capacity in Erhai watershed and the optimization theory and applying a multi-objective dynamic programming model, this paper seeks to identify the total amount target of major pollutants and the optimal resource distribution model to balance both social economic structure and economic development. Results show that the balanced growth-oriented scenario is suitable for socioeconomic development program in Erhai wate...