期刊论文

中文

中国历史地理论丛

1001-5205

2015

30

2

24-40

国家自然科学基金项目(41171408) 国家社会科学基金项目(11AZD117,12&ZD145)

本校为第一机构

元朝(1279-1368年)90年间至少有52年发生过疫灾,疫灾频度为57.78％.元初疫灾多与战争有关,中期疫灾多由旱灾及其所致饥荒引起,后期疫灾则是灾荒和战乱叠加的结果.元朝疫灾大多发生于夏季,很少发生于冬季,秋季疫灾流行的范围最广.仅从疫灾频度看,元朝经历了一个4落3起的波动过程,总体呈上升趋势;结合疫灾频度和广度来看,元朝疫灾表现为一个2起2落的波动过程,1280-1319年为第一波,1320-1369年为第二波.省级空间尺度上,疫灾频度与人口密度呈正相关,95.27％的疫灾县分布于人口相对密集的东南诸省,人口密度最高的江浙行省的疫灾最为严重.县级空间尺度上,疫灾主要分布于今京广线以东地区,且南方重于北...

During 90 years in the Yuan Dynasty （1279--1368）, at least 52 years were there took place epidemic disasters, annually with an average epidemic frequency of 57. 78%. In the early 30 years of the period, most of the epidemic disasters were war--related, during the middle 30 years caused mainly by droughts and the famine therewith, and in the late 30 years resulted from clustery wars and natural disasters. Temporally, epidemic disasters seemed more preferable to prevalence in summer~ in turn spring, autumn and winter, but in autumn there were t...