Uncertainty and sensitivity analysis to complex systems

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成果类型：

期刊论文

作者：

Zhu, Yueying*;Wang, Qiuping Alexandre;Li, Wei;Cai, Xu

通讯作者：

Zhu, Yueying

作者机构：

[Zhu, Yueying; Wang, Qiuping Alexandre] Le Mans Univ, IMMM, UMR CNRS 6283, F-72085 Le Mans, France.

[Zhu, Yueying; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu] Cent China Normal Univ, Complex Sci Ctr, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

[Zhu, Yueying; Li, Wei; Cai, Xu] Cent China Normal Univ, Inst Particle Phys, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

[Wang, Qiuping Alexandre] Yncrea, HEI, F-59014 Lille, France.

[Li, Wei] Max Planck Inst Math Sci, Inselst 22, D-04103 Leipzig, Germany.

通讯机构：

[Zhu, Yueying] L

[Zhu, Yueying] C

Le Mans Univ, IMMM, UMR CNRS 6283, F-72085 Le Mans, France.

Cent China Normal Univ, Complex Sci Ctr, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

Cent China Normal Univ, Inst Particle Phys, Wuhan 430079, Hubei, Peoples R China.

语种：

英文

关键词：

Variance decomposition;uncertainty analysis;sensitivity analysis;epidemic spreading dynamics

期刊：

International Journal of Modern Physics C

ISSN：

0129-1831

年：

2017

卷：

期：

页码：

1750109

DOI：

10.1142/S0129183117501091

基金类别：

Programme of Introducing Talents of Discipline to Universities [B08033]; China Scholarship CouncilChina Scholarship Council [201406770035]

机构署名：

本校为通讯机构

院系归属：

物理科学与技术学院

心理学院

摘要：

In the complexity modeling, variance decomposition technique is widely used for the quantification of the variation in the output variables explained by covariates. In this work, the satisfaction of sampling-based variance decomposition strategy (SVDS) is firstly testified in the implementation of an analytic method for uncertainty and sensitivity analysis (UASA) of complex systems. Results suggest that SVDS may overvalue the impacts from individual covariates alone but underestimate the effects from their interactions when the model under discussion involves the interaction effects of nonline...

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