期刊论文

中文

中国畜牧杂志

0258-7033

2018

54

6

132-137

10.19556/j.0258-7033.2018-06-132

本校为第一机构

本文使用X-13-A-S季节调整方法对湖北省鸡蛋主产区收购价格等数据进行季节调整,并利用向量误差修正(VEC)模型从蛋鸡生产成本及鸡蛋市场整体供给情况2个角度分析影响其长期下跌的因素.研究表明:湖北鸡蛋收购价格具有“饲料成本推动型”农产品的特征,且受市场整体供给的影响,湖北省豆粕价格对其有显著正向影响,滞后期为2～3个月,长期弹性为2.38;全国在产蛋鸡存栏量对其有负向影响,滞后期为2个月,长期弹性为-2.26.“湖北省鸡蛋主产区收购价格”近年低位震荡主要归因于湖北饲料原料价格的连续走低和全国在产蛋鸡存栏量的持续高位.

This study was based on the data of egg prices in Hubei Province. By using X-13-AS seasonal adjustment method and VEC model, the paper focused on the factors affecting the egg prices from the perspective of the cost and market supply. The result shows that the long-term decrease of egg prices in Hubei Province was mainly caused by cost and market supply. The former factor was positively correlated with egg prices while the later was negatively correlated with them. Besides, the phenomenon that the prices of eggs stayed low in recent years is mainly due to the long-term declination of the price...