摘要：
Accurate wind speed forecasting is capable of increasing the stability of wind power system. Notably, there are numerous factors affecting wind speed, thus causing wind speed forecasting to be difficult. To address the above -mentioned challenge, a novel hybrid model integrating genetic algorithm (GA), variational mode decomposition (VMD), improved dung beetle optimization algorithm (IDBO), and Bidirectional long short-term memory network based on attention mechanism (BiLSTM-A) is proposed in this study to achieve satisfactory forecasting performance. In the proposed model, GA is adopted to optimize the VMD to eliminate noise and extract original series attributes. And the IDBO is adopted for hyperparameters selection for the BiLSTM-A. The proposed GA-VMD-IDBO-BiLSTM-A is compared with nine established comparable models, with the aim of verifying its forecasting performance. A series of experiments on four 1 -hour real wind series in Stratford are performed to assess the performance of the model. The MAPE of the four datasets forecasting results reached 1.4%, 2.4%, 3.5%, 2.4%. As indicated by the experimental results, GA-VMD can better process the data and improve the forecasting accuracy. IDBO can optimize the parameters of BiLSTM model and improve the forecasting performance. The dual -optimization wind speed forecasting model can obtain high accuracy and strong stability.
摘要：
Cybersecurity presents non-negligible challenges for firm collaboration and supply chain viability, as information exchange among nodes introduces potential interdependent risks. How to make appropriate decisions on security investments and information exchange modes is a significant issue for supply chain members. Considering two information exchange modes: system interconnection and system independence, this study develops two game models to investigate the cybersecurity investments in a vertical supply chain composed of a retailer and n suppliers. Initial analysis shows that although firms learn investment decisions mutually in the face of a changing cybersecurity environment, suppliers always take a free ride on the efforts of retailer in two cases and the increased interdependent risks will damp nodes enthusiasm for security investments. Next, to compare the two cases, we introduce information exchange efficiency as the mediate parameter to link degree of system interconnection and proportion of information shared. We found that under the system independence mode, firms with high information-exchanging demand in the large-scale supply chain are more motivated to invest in cybersecurity. Furthermore, we extend our models to a centralised decision-making scenario. We find that security investment efficiency is greatly improved, and the free-riding behaviour of supplier is significantly reduced when systems are interconnected.
摘要：
When the freshness of the firm's food is not observable, consumers may experience psychological feelings of elation or disappointment when the perceived actual freshness exceeds or falls short of their initial expectations. This paper investigates the firm's optimal selling strategies considering the consumer reference freshness effect in a fresh food supply chain. We consider two selling modes: the dual-channel retailing strategy (DCRS) mode in which the retailer sells food to consumers from store and online, and the omni-channel buy-online-and-pick-up-in-store (BOPS) mode in which the retailer additionally provides the BOPS option to consumers. Furthermore, the case of two competing suppliers is also considered. We show that on the one hand, the reference effect positively affects price strategies at a low reference freshness, and negatively affects goodwill and freshness-keeping effort in both the DCRS and BOPS modes. The BOPS mode helps to mitigate the negative effects and improve them. On the other hand, the differences found between the two modes indicate that BOPS mode is not always better than DCRS mode. Prices are higher in BOPS mode than in DCRS mode at a high reference freshness, otherwise the prices in DCRS mode are higher at a low reference freshness and with large BOPS channel size. Although BOPS mode helps to alleviate the anchoring effect, it creates higher requirements in terms of the firm's freshness-keeping efforts. If consumer perceptions of freshness as high/low are only dependent on a high/low goodwill, then the firm's profit in DCRS mode is more likely to be higher than in BOPS mode.
期刊：
International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health,2022年19(14):8675- ISSN：1661-7827
通讯作者：
Yanhui Li
作者机构：
[Yao, Qi; Li, Yanhui] Wuhan Coll, Management Sch, Wuhan 430212, Peoples R China.;[Yao, Qi; Li, Yanhui; Zhu, Shenjun] Cent China Normal Univ, Sch Informat Management, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.
通讯机构：
[Yanhui Li] S;School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China<&wdkj&>Management School, Wuhan College, Wuhan 430212, China<&wdkj&>Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
期刊：
Managerial and Decision Economics,2022年43(6):2619-2635 ISSN：0143-6570
通讯作者：
Yanhui Li
作者机构：
[Xu, Lu] Guangdong Med Univ, Sch Humanities & Management, Dongguan, Peoples R China.;[Yao, Qi; Li, Yanhui] Cent China Normal Univ, Sch Informat Management, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.;[Yao, Qi; Li, Yanhui] Wuhan Coll, Sch Management, Wuhan, Peoples R China.
通讯机构：
[Yanhui Li] S;School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan, China<&wdkj&>School of Management, Wuhan College, Wuhan, China
摘要：
Considering information security and personalization paradoxes, this paper investigates the optimal information security investments of a firm and purchasing decisions of consumers with different privacy concerns in online personalization. It is found that consumers and firm tend to fall into a prisoner's dilemma in Nash equilibrium. To improve security investment efficiency and boost personalization consumption, firm-led Stackelberg game and firm-led Stackelberg game with punishment mechanism are proposed and analyzed. The results indicate that the security information measures firm take in advance can effectively increase the waverers' willingness to purchase personalized products. Government punishment helps to facilitate a win-win situation but does not work when proportion of wavers in the market is very small. Furthermore, the responses of equilibrium strategies and payoffs to related characteristics are discussed numerically. Finally, some managerial insights are recommended to firms who provide personalized products for making proper security investment and to government departments for formulating security punishment policies.
摘要：
With the continuous development of the maritime transportation industry, many researchers paid highly attention to the research field of maritime transportation, and numerous related studies were conducted. Therefore, it is very timely and necessary to examine the active authors, affiliations and nationalities focused on this research field, so as to enable new researchers to quickly build an understanding of this field. Based on 2,972 papers published in 66 journals from 2011 to 2020, this paper uses three indicators: number of papers, the weighted score, and the impact score, to rank top fifty authors, affiliations, and nationalities in the research field of maritime transportation, and show their ranking changes in five-year intervals. Finally, this paper counts the frequency of keywords from all papers and surveys the number of research topics in the past ten years from the four research fields of 'shipping' 'port' 'maritime fleet' and 'green shipping' to help researchers identify research hotspots and grasp future directions.
作者机构：
[Li, Yanhui; Zhu, Shenjun] Cent China Normal Univ, Sch Informat Management, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.;[Fu, Hongming] Cent China Normal Univ, Natl Res Ctr Cultural Ind, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.
通讯机构：
[Yanhui Li] S;School of Information Management, Central China Normal University, Wuhan 430079, China<&wdkj&>Author to whom correspondence should be addressed.
摘要：
In cold chain logistics, fresh agricultural products are susceptible to deteriorate due to the passage of time in the distribution process. To reduce the loss of cargo, this research integrates the traditional refrigeration cost into the freshness-keeping cost invested in the process of transportation and unloading goods. We rely on the investment of freshness-keeping cost to reduce the cargo damage cost caused by the distribution process and then propose a new vehicle routing problem (VRP). According to all relevant costs, this research builds a mathematical model with the goal of minimizing the total distribution cost. A hybrid ant colony optimization is designed to solve the problem, and the effectiveness of the model and algorithm are verified through two sets of comparative experiments. To determine which products should be invested in freshness-keeping cost to reduce the total distribution cost, we perform numerical analysis on the relevant parameters in the model. Results provide decision-making references for cold chain logistics distribution enterprises in the design of distribution routes.
作者机构：
[Zhang, Bo] Wuhan Business Univ, Sch Econ, Wuhan 430056, Peoples R China.;[Li, Yanhui; Zhang, Meng; Yang, Lan] Cent China Normal Univ, Sch Informat Management, Wuhan 430079, Peoples R China.
摘要：
In this paper, we look into the optimal sales strategy of e-commerce platform which sells fresh-product advertising in advance-selling period and spot-selling period, respectively, when advance-selling and spot-selling integration mode is applied. The study found that, with the increase of advertising investment, the marginal benefit of e-commerce platform is declining; whether advertising during the advance-selling period or the advertising during the spot-selling period, the e-commerce platform can improve its profit, but under the same advertising effect factor, the optimal advertising investment for the sale period is smaller, and the profit when advertising in the advance-selling period is greater. When advertising in different periods, the optimal advertising and price strategy depends on the maximum valuation of consumers about the product and the advertising effect factor.
关键词：
Food loss and waste;Food supply chain;Effort to reduce food loss and waste;Quantum game
摘要：
This paper proposes a quantum game to study the food loss and waste (FLW) reduction in a two-echelon food supply chain (FSC) consisting of single supplier and single retailer. First, a Non-zero-sum game model based on the efforts of supplier and retailer in the process of FLW reduction is developed. Then, the classic strategy space is extended to quantum strategy space. The results show that in both classical environment and the separable quantum game scenario, it is difficult to achieve the Pareto optimal strategy of the two parties adopting the full effort strategy, because the full-effort party will bear the risk of betrayal by the non-effort party. However, in the context of maximally entangled quantum game, the risk causing by the non-effort party are borne by himself rather than the full-effort party. Correspondingly, both parties will adopt the full effort strategy to achieve a win-win situation and improve FLW in FSC significantly. Furthermore, an entanglement contract is proposed to ensure that neither of them has the motivation to deviate from the quantum strategy. Based on these findings, some managerial implications are presented to improve the level of cooperation and effort of the supplier and the retailer on FLW reduction. (C) 2020 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
摘要：
Cybersecurity presents a monumental challenge for interconnected supply chains, as an attack on one node can compromise an entire business. In this paper, we propose a game theory model to investigate cybersecurity investments with third-party risk propagation in a two-echelon supply chain consisting of one retailer and n suppliers. The optimal investments and their responses to relevant security characteristics, such as intrinsic vulnerability, propagation probability, number of suppliers, and attack probability, are analysed and discussed both theoretically and numerically considering one-stage risk propagation. It is found that there are serious prisoners' dilemma and free-riding phenomena in such a scenario. To mitigate third-party risks and improve the investment efficiency, three coordination mechanisms, joint decision, security risk compensation, and security information sharing, are presented and compared numerically. The results indicate that joint decision-making and security risk compensation perform better on stimulating firms' investments and reducing expected costs both individually and collectively relative to security information sharing. Furthermore, the case of two-stage risk propagation is also supplemented and compared with one-stage case. Based on these findings, some management insights are recommended to cybersecurity managers in supply chains for designing more efficient cybersecurity mechanisms and investment strategies.
摘要：
This paper considers a supply chain consisting of one supplier and one retailer who jointly invest in item-level radio frequency identification (RFID) by considering their demands and inventories. Since the supplier can be negative to adopt RFID, the main objective of this study is to design an effective mechanism that maximizes the profits of both players and the whole supply chain by implementing item-level RFID. For this objective, we propose a novel revenue-cost-sharing (RCS) contract based on the bargaining game as the incentive to encourage the implementation, and numerical results show that the RCS contract is considerably more effective than the wholesale-price contract for supply chain coordination. Moreover, we show that the retail supply chain can be coordinated perfectly under the RCS contract when the thresholds of the revenue/cost sharing rates are set appropriately. This study provides significant managerial insight into the incentive and coordination strategy to implement item-level RFID in the retail supply chain.
